Energy Sector

The Republic of Tajikistan possesses significant reserves of renewable ("green") energy, ranking sixth in the world in terms of its usage. About 98 percent of the electricity generated in the country comes from renewable energy sources, primarily hydropower.

Tajikistan’s hydropower potential amounts to 527 billion kWh per year, placing it 8th in the world and 1st in Central Asia.

Tajikistan’s hydropower potential is twice the current energy needs of all Central Asian countries, and to date, only 5 percent of it has been utilized. This enormous reserve of "green" energy could serve not only Tajikistan in the future but also other Central Asian countries, as well as Afghanistan and Pakistan, with which Tajikistan is connected via the high-voltage power transmission line CASA-1000.

Tajikistan also has significant potential for solar and wind energy, which remains largely untapped. The country enjoys an average of 300 sunny days per year, with an economically viable solar energy capacity of 369,600 MW. The wind energy capacity stands at 4,485 MW, which has also not yet been utilized.

The government has set a goal to achieve 100 percent "green" electricity generation by 2032.

To this end, Tajikistan is currently constructing the Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP) with a capacity of 3,780 MW and the Sebzor HPP with a capacity of 11 MW, while the feasibility study for the Shurob HPP (800 MW) is being prepared. In addition, a feasibility study is being developed jointly with Uzbekistan for the construction of hydroelectric power plants in the Zarafshan River basin with a total capacity of 320 MW.

Meanwhile, the construction of the CASA-1000 high-voltage transmission line, in cooperation with Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, aimed at delivering "green" energy to South Asia, is in its final stages. In 2024, Tajikistan reconnected to the unified Central Asian power grid after a 15-year hiatus.

To date, utilizing the existing legal framework, Tajikistan has implemented several projects with foreign investment, including the construction of the Sangtuda-1 HPP (670 MW), Sangtuda-2 HPP (220 MW), the electrification of the Danghara Free Economic Zone, and the Pamir Energy concession. Additionally, a billing system transition project was implemented in the Sino district of Dushanbe with private sector participation, and a supplementary agreement was signed.

The management of the country’s electricity distribution networks was also handed over to a private sector international consortium led by TATA Power for a five-year period, after which a final decision on private sector involvement in this crucial system will be made.

In recent years, due to rapid economic growth, population increase, digitalization, the use of new and innovative technologies, and the country's accelerated industrialization, the demand for electricity has risen significantly. Global processes, especially climate change and glacier melting, are further increasing the importance of "green" energy.

In this context, there is growing interest each year in the use of "green" hydrogen, and Tajikistan, with its vast water and hydropower resources, has great potential for its production.

Analyses show that electricity demand in Tajikistan is growing by 5–7 percent annually, a trend similarly observed in other Central Asian countries. Afghanistan and Pakistan, connected to Tajikistan through the CASA-1000 line, are considered very suitable markets, given that only 30–40 percent of Afghanistan's population has access to electricity, and Pakistan also experiences severe power shortages during the summer.

In view of this, attracting foreign investment in the renewable or "green" energy sector in Tajikistan is considered advantageous. Investors can contribute in the following areas:

• construction of medium and large hydropower plants, including Shurob HPP (800 MW), Yavan HPP and Fondary HPP (totaling 320 MW), Sanobod HPP (500 MW in three phases), among others;
• construction of solar, wind, and geothermal power stations, including through public-private partnership mechanisms;
• implementation of billing systems and other mechanisms for efficient electricity use;
• management of individual electricity distribution networks through public-private partnerships;
• creation of stable electricity sales systems for electric vehicles;
• establishment of production lines for environmentally "green" hydrogen aimed at export to other countries;
• other types of investment activities that are not contrary to the legislation of the Republic of Tajikistan.

Given the growing global demand for renewable energy sources to support the transition to a "green" economy, Tajikistan’s enormous potential in this area will undoubtedly attract special attention from investors.